A per-team Dixon-Coles Poisson goal model predicts the remaining World Cup 2026 knockout fixtures, and this page tracks the live record of those predictions against actual results.
How the model's pre-match pick has fared on the 104 matches played so far. Knockout ties are scored on which team advanced (extra time / penalties); "log loss" and the Brier score reward being confident and right on the 90-minute result, with the base-rate line a naive predictor for comparison.
| Date | Stage | Match | Model pick | Actual | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Final | Spain v Argentina | Spain (62%) | Spain advanced 0-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-18 | Third-place match | France v England | France (59%) | England advanced 4-6 | ✗ |
| 2026-07-15 | Semi-finals | England v Argentina | Argentina (54%) | Argentina advanced 1-2 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-14 | Semi-finals | France v Spain | Spain (55%) | Spain advanced 0-2 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-12 | Quarter-finals | Argentina v Switzerland | Argentina (73%) | Argentina advanced 1-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-11 | Quarter-finals | Norway v England | England (65%) | England advanced 1-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-10 | Quarter-finals | Spain v Belgium | Spain (74%) | Spain advanced 2-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-09 | Quarter-finals | France v Morocco | France (60%) | France advanced 2-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-07 | Round of 16 | Switzerland v Colombia | Colombia (43%) | Draw 0-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-07-07 | Round of 16 | Argentina v Egypt | Argentina (81%) | Argentina advanced 3-2 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-07 | Round of 16 | USA v Belgium | Belgium (63%) | Belgium advanced 1-4 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-06 | Round of 16 | Portugal v Spain | Spain (61%) | Spain advanced 0-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-06 | Round of 16 | Mexico v England | England (52%) | England advanced 2-3 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-05 | Round of 16 | Brazil v Norway | Brazil (77%) | Norway advanced 1-2 | ✗ |
| 2026-07-04 | Round of 16 | Canada v Morocco | Morocco (63%) | Morocco advanced 0-3 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-04 | Round of 16 | Paraguay v France | France (78%) | France advanced 0-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-04 | Round of 32 | Colombia v Ghana | Colombia (82%) | Colombia advanced 1-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-04 | Round of 32 | Argentina v Cabo Verde | Argentina (90%) | Argentina advanced 1-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-04 | Round of 32 | Australia v Egypt | Australia (58%) | Egypt advanced 0-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-07-03 | Round of 32 | Switzerland v Algeria | Switzerland (69%) | Switzerland advanced 2-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-03 | Round of 32 | Portugal v Croatia | Portugal (73%) | Portugal advanced 2-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-03 | Round of 32 | Spain v Austria | Spain (87%) | Spain advanced 3-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-02 | Round of 32 | USA v Bosnia and Herzegovina | USA (85%) | USA advanced 2-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-02 | Round of 32 | Belgium v Senegal | Belgium (63%) | Belgium advanced 2-2 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-01 | Round of 32 | England v Congo DR | England (76%) | England advanced 2-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-01 | Round of 32 | Mexico v Ecuador | Mexico (69%) | Mexico advanced 2-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-07-01 | Round of 32 | France v Sweden | France (87%) | France advanced 3-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-30 | Round of 32 | Côte d'Ivoire v Norway | Norway (54%) | Norway advanced 1-2 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-30 | Round of 32 | Netherlands v Morocco | Morocco (50%) | Morocco advanced 1-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-30 | Round of 32 | Germany v Paraguay | Germany (73%) | Paraguay advanced 1-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-29 | Round of 32 | Brazil v Japan | Brazil (66%) | Brazil advanced 2-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-29 | Round of 32 | South Africa v Canada | Canada (66%) | Canada advanced 0-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-28 | Group Stage | Croatia v Ghana | Croatia (54%) | Croatia 2-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-28 | Group Stage | Panama v England | England (70%) | England 0-2 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-28 | Group Stage | Congo DR v Uzbekistan | Congo DR (52%) | Congo DR 3-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-28 | Group Stage | Colombia v Portugal | Portugal (35%) | Draw 0-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-27 | Group Stage | Algeria v Austria | Austria (37%) | Draw 3-3 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-27 | Group Stage | Jordan v Argentina | Argentina (82%) | Argentina 1-3 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-27 | Group Stage | Cabo Verde v Saudi Arabia | Cabo Verde (37%) | Draw 0-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-27 | Group Stage | Uruguay v Spain | Spain (55%) | Spain 0-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-27 | Group Stage | Egypt v IR Iran | Egypt (34%) | Draw 1-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-27 | Group Stage | New Zealand v Belgium | Belgium (74%) | Belgium 1-5 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | Group Stage | Senegal v Iraq | Senegal (62%) | Senegal 5-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | Group Stage | Norway v France | France (52%) | France 1-4 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | Group Stage | Japan v Sweden | Japan (62%) | Draw 1-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-26 | Group Stage | Tunisia v Netherlands | Netherlands (73%) | Netherlands 1-3 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | Group Stage | Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire | Côte d'Ivoire (65%) | Côte d'Ivoire 0-2 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | Group Stage | Ecuador v Germany | Germany (42%) | Ecuador 2-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-25 | Group Stage | Paraguay v Australia | Australia (42%) | Draw 0-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-25 | Group Stage | Türkiye v USA | Türkiye (40%) | Türkiye 3-2 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | Group Stage | Morocco v Haiti | Morocco (76%) | Morocco 4-2 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | Group Stage | Scotland v Brazil | Brazil (69%) | Brazil 0-3 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | Group Stage | Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar | Bosnia and Herzegovina (44%) | Bosnia and Herzegovina 3-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | Group Stage | Switzerland v Canada | Switzerland (50%) | Switzerland 2-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-24 | Group Stage | South Africa v South Korea | South Korea (49%) | South Africa 1-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-24 | Group Stage | Czechia v Mexico | Mexico (43%) | Mexico 0-3 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | Group Stage | Panama v Croatia | Croatia (53%) | Croatia 0-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | Group Stage | England v Ghana | England (73%) | Draw 0-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-23 | Group Stage | Colombia v Congo DR | Colombia (59%) | Colombia 1-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-23 | Group Stage | Portugal v Uzbekistan | Portugal (63%) | Portugal 5-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | Group Stage | Jordan v Algeria | Algeria (48%) | Algeria 1-2 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | Group Stage | Argentina v Austria | Argentina (67%) | Argentina 2-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | Group Stage | Norway v Senegal | Norway (46%) | Norway 3-2 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | Group Stage | France v Iraq | France (76%) | France 3-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-21 | Group Stage | Uruguay v Cabo Verde | Uruguay (59%) | Draw 2-2 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-21 | Group Stage | Spain v Saudi Arabia | Spain (75%) | Spain 4-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-21 | Group Stage | New Zealand v Egypt | Egypt (37%) | Egypt 1-3 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-21 | Group Stage | Belgium v IR Iran | Belgium (50%) | Draw 0-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-20 | Group Stage | Tunisia v Japan | Japan (62%) | Japan 0-4 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-20 | Group Stage | Netherlands v Sweden | Netherlands (59%) | Netherlands 5-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-20 | Group Stage | Ecuador v Curaçao | Ecuador (74%) | Draw 0-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-20 | Group Stage | Germany v Côte d'Ivoire | Germany (58%) | Germany 2-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | Group Stage | Türkiye v Paraguay | Türkiye (43%) | Paraguay 0-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-19 | Group Stage | USA v Australia | Australia (35%) | USA 2-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-19 | Group Stage | Scotland v Morocco | Morocco (54%) | Morocco 0-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | Group Stage | Brazil v Haiti | Brazil (80%) | Brazil 3-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-18 | Group Stage | Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina | Switzerland (67%) | Switzerland 4-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-18 | Group Stage | Canada v Qatar | Canada (68%) | Canada 6-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-18 | Group Stage | Czechia v South Africa | Czechia (45%) | Draw 1-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-18 | Group Stage | Mexico v South Korea | Mexico (52%) | Mexico 1-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-17 | Group Stage | Uzbekistan v Colombia | Colombia (52%) | Colombia 1-3 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-17 | Group Stage | Ghana v Panama | Panama (41%) | Ghana 1-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-17 | Group Stage | England v Croatia | England (54%) | England 4-2 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-17 | Group Stage | Portugal v Congo DR | Portugal (62%) | Draw 1-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-16 | Group Stage | Austria v Jordan | Austria (48%) | Austria 3-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-16 | Group Stage | Argentina v Algeria | Argentina (63%) | Argentina 3-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-16 | Group Stage | Iraq v Norway | Norway (56%) | Norway 1-4 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-16 | Group Stage | France v Senegal | France (48%) | France 3-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-15 | Group Stage | IR Iran v New Zealand | IR Iran (52%) | Draw 2-2 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-15 | Group Stage | Saudi Arabia v Uruguay | Uruguay (54%) | Draw 1-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-15 | Group Stage | Belgium v Egypt | Belgium (52%) | Draw 1-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-15 | Group Stage | Spain v Cabo Verde | Spain (85%) | Draw 0-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-14 | Group Stage | Sweden v Tunisia | Tunisia (36%) | Sweden 5-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-14 | Group Stage | Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador | Ecuador (43%) | Côte d'Ivoire 1-0 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-14 | Group Stage | Netherlands v Japan | Japan (38%) | Draw 2-2 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-14 | Group Stage | Germany v Curaçao | Germany (81%) | Germany 7-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 | Group Stage | Australia v Türkiye | Australia (50%) | Australia 2-0 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 | Group Stage | Haiti v Scotland | Scotland (47%) | Scotland 0-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 | Group Stage | Brazil v Morocco | Brazil (38%) | Draw 1-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 | Group Stage | Qatar v Switzerland | Switzerland (68%) | Draw 1-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-12 | Group Stage | USA v Paraguay | USA (46%) | USA 4-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-12 | Group Stage | Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina | Canada (75%) | Draw 1-1 | ✗ |
| 2026-06-11 | Group Stage | South Korea v Czechia | South Korea (49%) | South Korea 2-1 | ✓ |
| 2026-06-11 | Group Stage | Mexico v South Africa | Mexico (64%) | Mexico 2-0 | ✓ |
A Dixon-Coles Poisson goal model that fits a separate attack and defence rating for every team by weighted maximum-likelihood on ~17k international matches (recent games and major tournaments weighted more), with a two-sided home-advantage term and the standard low-scoring-draw correction. Knockout progression (extra time / penalties) uses a favorite-conversion calibrated on 92 years of World Cup knockout history — not a coin-flip shootout. Each match is predicted walk-forward from only earlier games, so there is no lookahead. Full method: SPEC.md.